上半年收获机械市场回放与下半年预判分析（英）

Market Review of Harvester in the First Half and Forecast and Analysis inthe Second Half

In the first half, China’s combine harvester market suffered a sharp decline that was not seen over the years. The three major crop combine harvester market slumped all the way, of which crawler grain combine harvester market reflected a slight decline, while wheeled grain combine harvester and corn harvester suffered a significant decline of more than 30%.On the contrary, the amount of exports of the harvester machinery made an unexpected achievement, serving as a selling point of the harvester market in the first half.

Three major grain harvesters market slide

Market survey shows that as of the end of June, the cumulative sale of a variety of combine harvesters reached 74,500units, with year-on-year decline of 19.86%; and the monthly performance of the harvester machinery market tends to suffer from ups and downson the whole.The monthly year-on-year growth in the first half remained in the glide path and the decline is two-digit. In addition, the month-on monthgrowth is filled with ups and downs, like a “roller coaster”.

Monthly Sales Tendency Chart of Combine Harvester Market from June 2016 to June 2017

With regard to the three major food crop harvesters, the market share of wheeled grain combine harvesters and corn harvesters drops off sharply on year-on-year basis, with a decline of more than 30% on average, while that of crawler grain combine harvesters also fails to escape from decline, but the decline is more moderate, which is 3.66% on year-on-year basis. As for other combine harvesters, they witness a rapid growth of 12.61%.

Seeing from the perspective of market share, the market share of wheeled grain combine harvesters is decreased by 7.87 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year, while that of crawler grain combine harvesters is increased by 9.16 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year, and that of corn harvesters continue to decline for 2.14 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

Market Demand Structure of Combine Harvesters in the First half of 2017

Regional concentration reflectesa slight rise, and the mainstream regions move southward

In the first half, the regional market of harvesters showed two more prominent features. One is the slight rise in the concentration of mainstream regions. Market survey shows that the first six months, the cumulative sales of a variety of harvesters of the top 10 regions in terms of sales reached 64,700units, with year-on-year decrease of 17.74%, those market share accounted for 86.85% of the total, with year-on-year growth of 2.18 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year.The other one is the southward movement of mainstream region. Among the top 10 regions in terms of sales, the regions with the sales above 10,000units are concentrated in Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei and other southern regions, of which Anhui continues to lead the way, but it also shows a sharp decline of 16.41%, while Jiangsu, Hubei and Hunan gains a substantial increase of more than 30%. The market share is also increased by 7 percentage points, 5.33 percentage points and 1.64 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year, respectively.

The main reason for southward movement of the regional market of harvesters lies in the moderate decline in the crawler grain combine harvester market in the first half, as well as the relatively larger market share. On the contrary, the sharp decrease in the wheeled grain combine harvesters and corn harvesters which are based on the northern demand results in a decline in the regional market of harvesters in the north, and the market share also reflects a greater decline.

Regional Market Share of Harvesters in the First Half of 2017

Import suffers a sharp decline, exports increase while the total decrease

Different from the substantial decline in the domestic market, the import and export market suffers from ups and downs. On the one hand, import falls sharply.Statistics show that as of the end of June, the cumulative imports of various harvesters reached 437units, achieving the amount of imports of 38.9294 million US dollars, with year-on-year decrease of 55.72% and 47.43%, respectively. On the other hand, the export decreases in volume while increasing in amount.

Export structure tends to be large-scale with the decrease in volume and increase in amount

In the first half of the year, China’s harvester machinery exports fell slightly, while exports rose sharply.Statistics show that as of the end of June, the cumulative export of a variety of harvesters reached 18,033units, and the market exports reached 151.7113 million US dollars, with year-on-year growth of -7.64% and 41.11%, respectively.

From the export category, volume and amount of combine harvester exports still occupy a major shareand show a substantial increase.Statistics show that the volume and amount of combine harvester exports reached 10,503unitsand 140.2084 million US dollars, with year-on-year growthof 30.02% and 58.07%, respectively; accounting for 58.24% and 92.42% of the total, respectively, with a significant year-on-year growth of 16.87 percentage points and 9.91 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year.

From the perspective of exports of other harvesters, the export volume shows a decline to different extents, including cane harvesters and other unspecified harvester show a sharp year-on-year decline in terms of export. With regarding to the amount of exports, cotton picker show year-on-year decline of 60.69%, while cane harvesters and other unspecified harvesters reflect a sharp year-on-year growth of 195.99% and 33.41%, respectively.

Exporting regions target at Asia, making the concentration declined

Combine harvester exports are mainly concentrated in Asia, and statistics show that Asia’svolume and amount of exports were 9,868 units and 125.3725 million US dollars, accounting for 93.95% and 89.42%, respectively.

From the top 10 countries or regions in terms of amount of exports, exporting regions show a decline inconcentration. Statistics show that as of the end of June this year, the combine harvesters are exported from 61 countries or regions in total (same number of exporting countries or regions over the same period last year), and the top 10 countries achieved the cumulative export volume and export amount of 9,861units and 128.5005 US dollars, with year-on-year growth of 28.25% and 53.26%, respectively; accounting for 93.89% and 91.65%, respectively, which is decreased by 1.22% and 2.87% compared with the same period last year.

Among the top 10 regions in terms of exports in the first half this year, they achieved a cumulative export amount of 124.2738 million US dollars with year-on-year growth of 81.26%, and the market share accounted for 88.64%, with year-on-year growth of 11.34% compared with the same period last year. As the top 3 regions in terms of exports, Indonesia, Iran and the Philippines show a substantial increase of 119.26%, 409.64% and 180.89%, respectively, which are above 70%, showing a substantial increase. However, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Burma and Peru showa decline to different extents.

Why is increasing in the harvester export market?

First, signs have been found of continuous improvement in the Asian economy at present and external demand has recovered, especially the economic tendency in emerging markets such as Russia and India is also expansion-based.In addition, the world’s major economies continue to recover, and the international market demand has been improved, which is conducive to the growth of China’s harvester export.

Second, there are still many favorable conditions for the export of China’s harvesters. For example, the product quality of the harvesters seeks improvement in stability and makes a transition from emptiness to solidity, the supply side structural reform continues to deepen, the cost performance is high and the international competitiveness has improved day by day. As a result, the imports and exports of China’s harvesters in 2017 are expected to sustain the momentum of returning to stable and making a turnaround.

Third, harvesterexport rebounds on the whole, driving the imports and exports of some countries along ‘the Belt and Road”’. In the first half, China saw a substantial increase in the amount of exports to Indonesia, Iran and other countries.

Fourth, export maximization is the root cause of ‘decrease in volume and increase in amount’.From the unit export price, the average price for each harvester is increased by 6,200 US dollars in the first quarter, of which that of the combine harvesters is increased by 2,700 US dollars, and cane harvesters is increased by 201,000 US dollars. As a result, such change has promoted the substantial increase in the amount of export of harvesters.

Fifth, we’re not surprised at the substantial decline in imports. With the gradual maturation of the harvester market and the introduction of large international brandsto China, most of the harvesters can basically satisfy the domestic market demand, as a result of which the import decline will become the normal of the harvesters.

However, it shall be noted that China’s harvester export is still confronted with many complex and uncertain factors. First, the global economic recovery is weak and market demand has not been fundamentally improved.Second, the current global economy has not fundamentally recovered, and there are still more uncertainties in the future bulk commodity price trend.Third, the base has been significantly elevated as the export scale expands quarter by quarter.All in all, these factors are likely to become the obstacles in the road of export of China’s harvesters in the second half this year.

Analysis of the decline in domestic market

In the first half, the decline in the harvesting machinery market is the result of multiple factors, which is manifested mainly in the following aspects.

First, China’s harvester market is in the “window period” of transition. Statistics show that the mechanical harvesting rate of three major grain crops (wheat, rice and corn) in 2016 reached 93.74%, 87.11% and 66.68%, respectively, while that of economic crops remained at a low level, because the market is still in the initial stage of start-up, making it difficult to support the whole harvester market.But it is not difficult to find that China’s harvesting machinery market is in the “window period”, during which the traditional market is declining while emerging market has not entered the growth period.

Second, subsidies for agricultural machinery are lagged. Owing to variety of reasons, subsidies for agricultural machinery make slow progress in the first half. According to relevant information, only22% of subsidies for agricultural machinery have been granted in China as of the end of June.

Third, it lacks the powerful support of mainstream markets. In the first half, the three major crop harvesters suffered a decline to different extents due to respective factors. And it is the simultaneous decline in the market of the three major combine harvesters that led to a sharp decline in the entire market.

Fourth, food prices are low and the purchasing power is falling. Since last year, food prices have been low, which severely weakens the consumer purchasing power, directly leading to a longer renewal cycle of the harvesters.

Last but not least, the market is overdrafted. In the past year, some manufacturers vigorously promoted for competition.Small brands abandoned the price principle to raid the market at a low price, and big brands followed closely to promote at a reduced price, triggering some customers to purchase in advance, as a result of which the market is severely overdrafted.