Review and forecasting about the market of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine in 2016

In the market of three food crops harvester of 2016, the market of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine becomes the only one growth market in the first 8 months. Market research shows that it has sold 69700 sets of various types of machinery as of the end of August with year-on-year growth of 8.58%.

This is the continuous growth after 30.73% large scale rise on year-on-year basis since 2015, and also the second year which grows in successive years for 12 years since 2005 (last year-over-year increase occurred in 2008 and 2009 with double-digit large scale growth for two years in a row). However we expect that the whole market may decline in small scale after the fourth quarter.

The market rises and growth power is strong

Review the months from July 2015 to now, other months all run at high level in growth area except that October 2015 drops out of growth area. The market falls into a decline channel when entering into April-June 2016, and is back in a stronger position again in July-August, rising in a large scale on year-on-year basis.

From month-on-month comparison, we can see that trend curve presents the feature of rapid change. The highest growth occurred in February 2016, and rise as high as 274.3% compared with last stage, and decline month by month afterwards. Except that there was negative growth in June 2016, other months all run in growth channel, which reflects strong growth power of self-propelled wheel-type grain combine market.

同比On year-on-year basis

环比Compared with last stage

Market of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine rises mainly driven by the factors below:

Firstly, stronger rigid demand. Although paddy mechanical harvest level reaches 86.21% in 2015, rigid demand in some southern china regions, where are primary production regions of paddy such as Guangxi, Sichuan and Chongqing, etc., is one of main power promoting market development for lower level of mechanical harvest level. 

Secondly, replacement promotes market development. Replacement cycle of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine is generally about 3.5-4 years. Calculate forward, most of machinery purchases in 2012 shall be replaced, while 2012 was just the year when market run at higher level. More than 67000 sets are sold in 2012, increasing 100.15% on year-on-year basis, and great replacement quantity becomes a driving force promoting market development in 2016. 

Thirdly, forward lead of market. Market forward lead sign of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine in 2016 is prominent. In former years, there is still large sales volume at the end of October, while it has basically ended at the end of September in 2016. Thus we judge that the first 8 months’growth only shows stage trend of market, and the whole year’s market may decline in small scale. 

Fourthly, promotion of regional market. For example, the flood happened in Heilongjiang market in 2016 leads to difficulty for the operation of many wheel-type rice harvesters. At this time it is replaced by self-propelled crawler-type grain combine, driving the while market. 

Regional concentration degree increases, and mainstream market “8 up and 2 down”

According to the analysis about regional market in 2016, there is a situation of “8 up and 2 down” in mainstream markets ranking top10. Market research shows that the regions ranking top 10 sold 62300 sets of various types of machinery as of the end of August, increasing 10.38% on year-on-year basis; account for 89.39%, increasing 1.46% compared with the same period of 2015. 

Suzhou and Anhui are biggest winners in the market of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine, and respectively rank top two with more than 10000 sets sales volume and increase 85.54% and 6.47% on year-on-year basis, accounting for 15.66% and 14.68%. From the ratio change of Suzhou and Anhui market, we can see that Jiangsu market increases 6.49% compared with that of 2016, and Anhui declines 0.29%. 

There are different-degree rise in markets of Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi, Sichuan& Chongqing, Heilongjiang, etc. Among which, on year-on-year basis, Guangxi market increases 41.55%, Sichuan& Chongqing market increases 90.03%, and Heilongjiang market increases 24.19%. Increase in most of regional markets lays a solid foundation for the growth of whole market. 

Demand transformation and large machine era is coming 

Large-scale is a distinctive feature of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine market in 2016. Market research shows that the machine with feed quantity smaller than 2kg/s is only sold more than 600 sets up to the end of August, declining 10.43% on year-on-year basis; account for 0.89%, almost disappear from market. 

There is different-degree decline in sales volume of machine with feed quantity 2～4kg/s and 4～5kg/s. Market research shows that it is respectively sold 16400 and 28900 sets up to the end of August, declining 25.37% and 1.13% on year-on-year basis and the ratio decreasing 10.69% and 2.85%. 

On the contrary, sales volume of the machine with feed quantity above 5kg/s rises in large scale, and it sold nearly 20000 sets from January to August, increasing 111.73% on year-on-year basis; account for 28.11%, and increase 13.69 compared with the same period of 2015. Rapid growth marks that the market of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine enters into a large-scale era. 

It is worth attention that semi-feeding harvester market starts to enter into a growth model from 2015 after going through many years’ decline. The year of 2016 keeps a steady upward trend. Over 4300 sets are sold from January to August, increasing 9.11% on year-on-year basis; account for 6.19%, and increase 0.03% compared with the same period of 2015. 

Divide profits into four parts and competition situation tends to be stable

The market competition of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine is intense, but the whole competition situation is relatively stable, forming two outstanding features: first, competition situation of “dividing profits into four parts” is formed, including that accumulated sales volume of World, Kubota, Lovol and Zoomlion all exceed 10000 sets, accounting for 85.39% of total sales volume. Second, competition situation tends to be stable, and brands ranking top 6 control over 95% share of the whole market, which is close to that of same period in 2015, presenting the feature of stable competition situation. 

Among the brands ranking top 6, World, the leader, sold more than 18000 sets in the first 8 months, declining 7.15% in small scale on year-on-year basis; account for 27.86%, and decrease 4.68% compared with the same period of 2015. The sales volume of Xingguang also decreases with 2.75% degree of reduction. Sales volume of Kubota, Lovol, Zoomlion, and Yanmar all increase, except that Yanmar sold over 3000 sets, other brands all sold over 10000 sets, respectively increasing 6.77%, 23.09%, 41.38% and 9.9%; respectively account for 24.8%, 17.24%, 15.07% and 5.43%. Sales volume of Kubota declines 0.41% compared with the same period of 2015, and that of other brands respectively increase 2.04%, 3.64% and 0.07%.

Compete with focused brand. Today, consumption of terminal market is gradually rational, and consumers pay more attention on the brand supported by product quality. In addition, product innovation may be a next focus of market competition. 

增减 Increase or decrease

Negative factors are prominent, and the market may decline in small scale

Although there is a good growth in the market of first 8 months, it can’t cover the weak point of negative factors, highlighted in following aspects.

Firstly, running at higher level in 2015 forms market highland in 2016, and it is hard to support the market continuous rise in 2016 in the increasingly saturated background of needs for self-propelled crawler-type grain combine;

Secondly, as above said, the sign of market demand forward-lead in 2016 is very outstanding, and growth in first three quarters becomes the main reason for market reduction in the fourth quarter; 

Thirdly, 12-year development trend law from 2015 to now and analysis combining with current situation of market can’t support market growth in 2016.

Thus, we judge that the demand in whole year's market may be more than 80000 sets, and decline about 3% on year-on-year basis.

销量 Sales volume 同比： On year-on-year basis