Review and forecasting about the market of maize harvesting machine(Review and forecasting about the
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本文导读目录：
1、Review and forecasting about the market of maize harvesting machine
2、Review and forecasting about the market of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine in 2016
Review and forecasting about the market of maize harvesting machine ♂
Review and forecasting about the market of maize harvesting machineAmong the harvester markets of wheat, paddy and maize of 2016, the most depressed should be market of maize harvesting machine. Market sales performance of maize harvesting machine is unpredictable, which amazes the whole industry greatly.
Market decline of maize harvesting machine has been definitely settled, but what is not clear is how much it shall decline in 2016? The past 8 months’ sales data has been released, and most of people in the industry believe that market decline of maize harvesting machine in 2016 may exceed 30%, but I am not so pessimistic about that. Through reviewing past 8 months’ market trend, we shall analyze what the market will achieve in next 4 months.
Negative factors hit and the needs break base line
In 2016, the market of maize harvesting machine is hit by multiple negative factors, which lead to poor sales performance. The market research shows that it has sold 36400 sets of maize harvesting machine up to the end of August, declining 22.57% year-on-year. The market decline reflects in monthly trend. From August 2015- August 2016, except for individual months, sales performance of most months always hovers around below zero line, and the months with decline margin exceeding two digits occupy vast majority. Although there are months with higher growth sales month-on-month, they are really rare in past 12 months.
For substantially decline of maize harvesting machine market which is in growth period, which beyond many people’s expectation. But if analyze numerous negative factors carefully in 2016, we can find that the market decline is not caused by rigid demand but numerous accidental factors.
Analyze from the policy factors faced by maize harvesting machine market in 2016, we can see that the influence on market is conspicuous in following aspects:
Firstly, subsidy drive decreases. Firstly, agricultural machinery subsidy policies in some places are released late and some places will not implement subsidy any more for the switch between of Phase II and Phase III of national standard of motor vehicle pollutant emission in 2016, which directly lead to insufficient subsidies. Secondly, subsidy limit is reduced. Subsidy limit for a single set of maize harvesting machine is reduced 10% in 2016, which has a great influence on the purchase of consumers. Thirdly, the market subsidy focuses on wheat harvester, tractor and subsoiler, which weakens the subsidy drive of maize harvesting machine market. Fourthly, some regions apply subsidies of 2016 into agricultural machineries which sold but not offered subsidy in 2015, which increases the gap of subsidies in 2016.
Secondly, Phase II and Phase III of national standard of motor vehicle pollutant emission switches and phenomenon of cash to buy is strong. It mainly reflects in following aspects: firstly, although switch between of Phase II and Phase III of national standard of motor vehicle pollutant emission starting from 2015 is implemented extending to December 1 this year, digest more than 20000 sets of inventory machine with Phase II of national standard of motor vehicle pollutant emission is a priority for most enterprises in the first half year, which forms irreconcilable contradiction with the situation that many users worry that the machine with Phase II of national standard of motor vehicle pollutant emission can’t get subsidy so that the user can’t buy and the seller can’t sell. Secondly, although some enterprises launch machine with Phase III of national standard of motor vehicle pollutant emission, the users still can’t buy for worrying about the stability of its performance, and this situation is outstanding in Huang-huai-hai region. Thirdly, after some enterprises without inventory launch machine with Phase III of national standard of motor vehicle pollutant emission, it needs some to reassure customers for higher price and customers’ lower cognition degree, which has greater influence on market.
Thirdly, adjustment of national planting structure hits purchase confidence. In 2016, our country launches the policy of “replace food crop with forage crop” and “replace rice with soybean”, meanwhile reduces the cultivated area of maize in Liandaowan region. This policy shakes the investment confidence of many potential customers in maize harvesting machine and drives them to change investment orientation, which creates larger influence on maize harvesting machine in 2016. Take Liaoning market for example, at the end of September when corn harvest, there is a phenomenon of purchasing machine temporarily for insufficient maize harvesting machines.
Except that policy negative factors hit market sales, natural factors within market has also changed slightly, and it is expressed in following specific aspects.
Firstly, recession in rigid demand. After continuous run at high level since 2012, rigid demand of maize harvesting machine in hot spot regions decreases, such as markets in Heilongjiang, Shandong, etc., and the market shows the sign of saturation.
Secondly, decline of customer’s investment income hits the investment confidence of potential consumers. In recent years, with the running of maize harvesting machine of our country at higher level, social inventory increases sharply and yield of corn inter-district homework decreases, which leads to a lack of confidence. From the machine-type sold in first half year of 2015, sales ratio of 2-row small-scale maize harvesting machine is increased, which shows that the consumer orientation of some users shifts to self-use-oriented purchase from investment-oriented.
Finally, the purchasing power decreases. In 2015, the price of wheat, paddy and maize price greatly decreases and farmers’ income decrease, which has great influence on farmers’ purchasing power.
Worse, negative factors at the third level are disturbed by accidental events, distinctly expressed in following two aspects.
On the one hand, natural disaster reduces corn harvest area. A long and narrow zone along Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Heilongjiang suffers from drought, and no kernels or seeds are gathered in many districts and even some places harvest corn as green feed. Such situation causes the needs reduction of maize harvesting machine and promotes the rapid growth of feed silage maize harvester market.
On the other hand, with great inventory pressure, the enterprise is in a hurry to sell, which directly causes fierce market competition, highlighted in price war of 2016. Consumer has bigger and bigger choice space, and market discipline of buying when price rises rather than falls happens again in the market of maize harvesting machine. They intent to buy at lower prices, and the whole market presents a thick atmosphere of waiting on their cash, forming a stalemated phenomenon such as boiling a frog with warm water in the market of maize harvesting machine.
Except that the superposition of above multiple negative factors causes strong resistance for market rise, deep-level factors are shown as the transformation of market needs, and two “window period” superimpose.
On one hand, our country’s maize harvesting machine market is in the eve of transformation from stripper to grain harvester, and many enterprises sees this kinds of transformation. Although grain harvester is developed and launched, it has not complete transformation yet for numerous factors such as poor performance stability, high price, small promotion efforts, untimely drying after harvest, thus window period of product demand in market of maize harvesting machine is formed. And such situation is more prominent in regional markets of Heilongjiang and Shandong where realizing corn mechanical-harvest.
On the other hand, maize harvesting machine market in hilly and mountain area has not started yet. Most enterprises focus on hot markets in northeast and Huang-huai-hai region, and the machine-type launched by them is also applied into these regions while neglect the development of machine-type applied in hilly and mountain area.
Although some small-scale enterprises develop and launch small-scale crawler-type maize harvesting machine, it can’t fill the market blank for factors of product performance, popularization, sales, etc, thus another window period is formed in the developing history of maize harvesting machine market-regional window period. Superposition of two window periods becomes the one of main reasons for market downturn from 2015 to now.
The market has not end yet and decline range is expected to be narrowed
The first 8 months, larger decline range in market of maize harvesting machine makes many people judge that the whole year’s decline range may exceed 30%, but we judge that the whole year’s sales volume may be about 65000 sets with decline range among 15%～20%.
Firstly, key factors resulting in the decline of maize harvesting machine market of 2016 are policy and accidental factors, not entirely rigid demand. Because among three major food crops in our country, maize has the largest cultivated area but the lowest mechanical harvest level, just 64.18% in 2015, it determines that endogenous rigid demand is still strong.
Secondly, decline of maize harvesting machine market of 2016 results from the reduction of cultivated area and the influence of “replacing food crop with forage crop”， hitting the confidence of consumers, rather than saturation of maize harvesting machine market.
Thirdly, sales volume in the first 8 months is not a real reflection of whole year’s sales. It particularly represented that the atmosphere of waiting on cash hanging over market, and vibration and shovel-ready is the biggest feature in past 8 months. In later 4 months, the whole market shall be driven by double motive forces of rigid demand and updating demand, especially the market of September and October is still worth waiting.
Finally, markets starting in the first 8 months are mainly in Huang-huai-hai region, and there are still larger needs space in northeastern region. As the high and cold region, corn harvest season can even be pushed to early November in northeastern region, and its market contribution rate can't be taken lightly.
Review and forecasting about the market of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine in 2016 ♂
Review and forecasting about the market of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine in 2016In the market of three food crops harvester of 2016, the market of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine becomes the only one growth market in the first 8 months. Market research shows that it has sold 69700 sets of various types of machinery as of the end of August with year-on-year growth of 8.58%.
This is the continuous growth after 30.73% large scale rise on year-on-year basis since 2015, and also the second year which grows in successive years for 12 years since 2005 (last year-over-year increase occurred in 2008 and 2009 with double-digit large scale growth for two years in a row). However we expect that the whole market may decline in small scale after the fourth quarter.
The market rises and growth power is strong
Review the months from July 2015 to now, other months all run at high level in growth area except that October 2015 drops out of growth area. The market falls into a decline channel when entering into April-June 2016, and is back in a stronger position again in July-August, rising in a large scale on year-on-year basis.
From month-on-month comparison, we can see that trend curve presents the feature of rapid change. The highest growth occurred in February 2016, and rise as high as 274.3% compared with last stage, and decline month by month afterwards. Except that there was negative growth in June 2016, other months all run in growth channel, which reflects strong growth power of self-propelled wheel-type grain combine market.
同比On year-on-year basis
环比Compared with last stage
Market of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine rises mainly driven by the factors below:
Firstly, stronger rigid demand. Although paddy mechanical harvest level reaches 86.21% in 2015, rigid demand in some southern china regions, where are primary production regions of paddy such as Guangxi, Sichuan and Chongqing, etc., is one of main power promoting market development for lower level of mechanical harvest level.
Secondly, replacement promotes market development. Replacement cycle of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine is generally about 3.5-4 years. Calculate forward, most of machinery purchases in 2012 shall be replaced, while 2012 was just the year when market run at higher level. More than 67000 sets are sold in 2012, increasing 100.15% on year-on-year basis, and great replacement quantity becomes a driving force promoting market development in 2016.
Thirdly, forward lead of market. Market forward lead sign of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine in 2016 is prominent. In former years, there is still large sales volume at the end of October, while it has basically ended at the end of September in 2016. Thus we judge that the first 8 months’growth only shows stage trend of market, and the whole year’s market may decline in small scale.
Fourthly, promotion of regional market. For example, the flood happened in Heilongjiang market in 2016 leads to difficulty for the operation of many wheel-type rice harvesters. At this time it is replaced by self-propelled crawler-type grain combine, driving the while market.
Regional concentration degree increases, and mainstream market “8 up and 2 down”
According to the analysis about regional market in 2016, there is a situation of “8 up and 2 down” in mainstream markets ranking top10. Market research shows that the regions ranking top 10 sold 62300 sets of various types of machinery as of the end of August, increasing 10.38% on year-on-year basis; account for 89.39%, increasing 1.46% compared with the same period of 2015.
Suzhou and Anhui are biggest winners in the market of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine, and respectively rank top two with more than 10000 sets sales volume and increase 85.54% and 6.47% on year-on-year basis, accounting for 15.66% and 14.68%. From the ratio change of Suzhou and Anhui market, we can see that Jiangsu market increases 6.49% compared with that of 2016, and Anhui declines 0.29%.
There are different-degree rise in markets of Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi, Sichuan& Chongqing, Heilongjiang, etc. Among which, on year-on-year basis, Guangxi market increases 41.55%, Sichuan& Chongqing market increases 90.03%, and Heilongjiang market increases 24.19%. Increase in most of regional markets lays a solid foundation for the growth of whole market.
Demand transformation and large machine era is coming
Large-scale is a distinctive feature of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine market in 2016. Market research shows that the machine with feed quantity smaller than 2kg/s is only sold more than 600 sets up to the end of August, declining 10.43% on year-on-year basis; account for 0.89%, almost disappear from market.
There is different-degree decline in sales volume of machine with feed quantity 2～4kg/s and 4～5kg/s. Market research shows that it is respectively sold 16400 and 28900 sets up to the end of August, declining 25.37% and 1.13% on year-on-year basis and the ratio decreasing 10.69% and 2.85%.
On the contrary, sales volume of the machine with feed quantity above 5kg/s rises in large scale, and it sold nearly 20000 sets from January to August, increasing 111.73% on year-on-year basis; account for 28.11%, and increase 13.69 compared with the same period of 2015. Rapid growth marks that the market of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine enters into a large-scale era.
It is worth attention that semi-feeding harvester market starts to enter into a growth model from 2015 after going through many years’ decline. The year of 2016 keeps a steady upward trend. Over 4300 sets are sold from January to August, increasing 9.11% on year-on-year basis; account for 6.19%, and increase 0.03% compared with the same period of 2015.
Divide profits into four parts and competition situation tends to be stable
The market competition of self-propelled crawler-type grain combine is intense, but the whole competition situation is relatively stable, forming two outstanding features: first, competition situation of “dividing profits into four parts” is formed, including that accumulated sales volume of World, Kubota, Lovol and Zoomlion all exceed 10000 sets, accounting for 85.39% of total sales volume. Second, competition situation tends to be stable, and brands ranking top 6 control over 95% share of the whole market, which is close to that of same period in 2015, presenting the feature of stable competition situation.
Among the brands ranking top 6, World, the leader, sold more than 18000 sets in the first 8 months, declining 7.15% in small scale on year-on-year basis; account for 27.86%, and decrease 4.68% compared with the same period of 2015. The sales volume of Xingguang also decreases with 2.75% degree of reduction. Sales volume of Kubota, Lovol, Zoomlion, and Yanmar all increase, except that Yanmar sold over 3000 sets, other brands all sold over 10000 sets, respectively increasing 6.77%, 23.09%, 41.38% and 9.9%; respectively account for 24.8%, 17.24%, 15.07% and 5.43%. Sales volume of Kubota declines 0.41% compared with the same period of 2015, and that of other brands respectively increase 2.04%, 3.64% and 0.07%.
Compete with focused brand. Today, consumption of terminal market is gradually rational, and consumers pay more attention on the brand supported by product quality. In addition, product innovation may be a next focus of market competition.
增减 Increase or decrease
Negative factors are prominent, and the market may decline in small scale
Although there is a good growth in the market of first 8 months, it can’t cover the weak point of negative factors, highlighted in following aspects.
Firstly, running at higher level in 2015 forms market highland in 2016, and it is hard to support the market continuous rise in 2016 in the increasingly saturated background of needs for self-propelled crawler-type grain combine;
Secondly, as above said, the sign of market demand forward-lead in 2016 is very outstanding, and growth in first three quarters becomes the main reason for market reduction in the fourth quarter;
Thirdly, 12-year development trend law from 2015 to now and analysis combining with current situation of market can’t support market growth in 2016.
Thus, we judge that the demand in whole year's market may be more than 80000 sets, and decline about 3% on year-on-year basis.
销量 Sales volume 同比： On year-on-year basis
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1、久保田Kubota (久保田农业机械（苏州）有限公司)
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