中国农机市场立体论：未来竞争的终极形态是否是寡头竞争？（英）

Mr. Gao Yuanen，a well-known old expert in agricultural machinery industry，thinks that China's agricultural machinery market will be three-dimensional for a long time. Large enterprises have the market of large enterprises，and small and medium-sized enterprises also have the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises.

The author thinks that there are three factors supporting three-dimensional theory of China's agricultural machinery market，that is diversity of land and planting patterns，level of operators，and particularity of equipment requirements of agricultural production itself.

First of all，China's land covers a wide range of areas，crop types and agronomic patterns vary. Therefore，China has become the favorite market of agricultural giant in the world. Secondly，the operation level of Chinese agricultural practitioners will be uneven for a long time. Their understanding and demand for agricultural equipment are also varied. Thirdly，agricultural demand for equipment has many varieties，small batch characteristics，coupled with our large land area，the level of operators is different，the demand for equipment is more complex.

Based on above 3 factors，the author believes that three-dimensional market of Chinese agricultural machinery will exist for a long time. However，this does not mean that small and medium-sized agricultural machinery enterprises can be very optimistic about survival，and large-scale agricultural machinery enterprises may not always be strong.

The author suggests that both large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises should seek a reasonable living space and determine their own risk boundaries. So how do we do it?

First，using avoidance tactics. Large enterprises should not compete with small and medium-sized enterprises. Small and medium-sized enterprises should not ‘steal’ market with big enterprises. Second，  using cooperation strategy. Large enterprises have advantages of capital，channels and management. Small and medium-sized enterprises have characteristics of regionalization and flexibility. Combination of them is more effective.

Of course，above two points are the development strategies that auhtor believe are in the three dimensional market over a longer period. If we look at future in the longer term，the world is convergent，and agricultural machinery is no exception.

One side，giant enterprises can penetrate subdivision area through single product control. On the other hand，terminal requirements are improved to meet standardized production.

So，the ultimate form of agricultural machinery industry is towards oligarchy. But this time will be very long. In the process，small and medium-sized enterprises will go beyond when they accumulate to a certain extent. Similarly，large enterprises are also prone to halt their efforts if they do not continue to innovate.

But at last，any enterprise that has developed for 100 years or it determined to develop for 100 years，it must focus on the present while preparing for the future.