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本文导读目录：

1、上半年收获机市场小幅上扬

2、上半年收获机械市场回放与下半年预判分析

3、上半年收获机械市场回放与下半年预判分析（英）

4、上半年新疆农村富余劳动力转移就业139.7万人次

上半年收获机市场小幅上扬 ♂

上半年收获机市场小幅上扬

2015年上半年，我国收获机械市场基本面呈现小幅上扬的特点。市场调查显示，截至6月底，130多家收获机械规模企业累计销售各种收获机械35.66万台，同比增长0.77%;较之2014年同期增速下降1.27个百分点。

从细分市场来看，2015年上半年呈现“两升一降”的特点，即履带式全喂入收割机、玉米收获机出现增长，轮式谷物全喂入收割机下滑。

其中，轮式谷物收割机受2014年收益相对较差、整体市场保有量增加等因素影响，累计销售4万余台，同比下降2.17%;履带式全喂入收割机市场累计销售4.13万台，同比增长23.6%;玉米收获机市场累计销售2.37万台，同比增长6.7%。

轮式谷物全喂入收割机在不同区域市场机型需求呈现差异。在中原市场，喂入量5公斤/秒以下产品需求持续萎缩，6～7公斤/秒的横轴流产品成为销售主体;东北市场6～7公斤/秒的纵轴流产品需求下滑，7公斤/秒以上机型发力。

履带式全喂入收割机市场仍以4～5公斤/秒机型为主。从技术路线来看，由于纵轴流产品成熟度高，可靠性、作业效率、性能相比其他产品都具有明显优势，销售比重快速增长，双滚筒及传统产品受作业效率及切碎效果不理想等因素影响，销量快速萎缩。

玉米收获机市场中，2行自走式玉米机出现大幅度增长，这是继2014年小3行出现批量事故之后市场需求出现的反弹;4行及4行以上机型增幅较小，与区域市场启动关系密切。

黄淮海区域为轮式谷物全喂入收割机主要需求区域，占需求总量的97.6%。其中，山东、河南、安徽、江苏等区域占比出现不同程度增长，河北、陕西、山西区域占比出现下降;东北市场尚未正式启动，只有零星需求。

履带式全喂入收割机区域需求主要集中在安徽和两湖。其中，安徽、湖北、湖南区域需求大幅度攀升;东北市场未启动，只有零星销量。

玉米收获机区域依然集中在黄淮海区域。山东、河南、京津冀等中原和西北区域受市场启动较晚影响，市场销量较同期有所减少，但占据主流;辽宁、吉林和黑龙江区域受2014年用户收益普遍较好拉动，终端市场需求旺盛，但市场占比仍偏低;内蒙古市场受补贴政策影响，同比出现较大幅度下滑。

轮式谷物全喂入收割机市场集中度有所下降，占比较2014年同期下降1.97个百分点。其中，福田雷沃小麦机占比下降，中联重机与洛阳中收出现不同程度增长。

履带式全喂入收割机市场集中度也有所下滑，占比较之2014年同期下降6.98%。其中，久保田、江苏沃得销量均超万台;中联重机、星光农机销量出现不同程度的增长，中联重机增幅较为强劲。

因上半年并非玉米收割机的销售旺季，大品牌并没有显示出固有的强大优势，从销量过千台的品牌分析，前7大品牌累计销售1.5万余，同比增长30.05%，占比69.72%，较之去年同期提高11.1个点。

上半年收获机械市场回放与下半年预判分析 ♂

上半年收获机械市场回放与下半年预判分析

上半年，我国联合收割机市场遭遇多年未有的滑铁卢。三大粮食作物联合收割机市场全线溃退，其中，履带式谷物联合收割机市场小幅下滑，轮式谷物联合收割机、玉米联合收获机下滑幅度超三成。与之相反，收获机械的出口额却逆势飘红，成为上半年收获机市场的最大看点。

3大主粮收获机市场齐下滑

市场调查显示，截至6月底，累计销售各种联合收割机7.45万台，同比下降19.86%；收获机械市场整体月度走势跌宕起伏。上半年月度同比均在下滑通道中运行，且跌幅均达到两位数。月度环比形同“过山车”，大起大落。

在3大粮食作物收获机械中，轮式谷物联合收割机、玉米收获机市场同比大幅滑坡，降幅均超过30%。履带式谷物联合收割机市场也未逃出下滑的命运，但下滑较为温和，同比下滑3.66%。其它联合收割机出现12.61%的较好增长。

从占比看，轮式谷物联合收割机市场占比较之去年同期下挫7.87个百分点，履带式谷物联合收割机市场占比较之去年同期上扬9.16个百分点，玉米收获机占比持续下降，较之去年同期下挫2.14个百分点。

区域集中度小幅增长，主流区域南移

上半年，收获机区域市场呈现两个较为突出的特征，一是主流区域集中度小幅攀升，市场调查显示，前6个月，销售前10大区域累计销售各种收获机6.47万台，同比下滑17.74%，占比86.85%，较之去年同期上扬2.18个百分点。

二是主流区域南移，在销售前10区域中，销量1万台以上的区域全部集中在安徽、江苏和湖北等南方区域，其中安徽销量继续领跑，但同比出现16.41%的大幅度滑坡，江苏、湖北、湖南同比大幅度攀升，增幅均在30%以上。占比较之去年同期也分别提高了7、5.33和1.64个百分点。

形成收获机区域市场南移的主要原因是今年上半年履带式谷物联合收割机市场的降幅较为温和，且占比较大。与之相反，以北方需求为主的轮式谷物联合收割机、玉米收获机的大幅度滑坡，造成北方收获机区域市场的下滑，占比也出现较大的下降。

进口大幅度滑坡，出口“量降额增”

与国内市场大幅度滑坡不同的是进出口市场的冰火两重天。一方面，进口大幅度下滑。统计显示，截至6月底，累计进口各种收获机437台，实现进口额3892.94万美元，同比分别下滑55.72%和47.43%。另一方面，出口演绎“量降额增”大戏。

量降额增，出口结构渐趋大型化

上半年，我国收获机械出口量小幅滑坡，出口额大幅度攀升。统计显示，截至6月底，累计出口各种收获机18033台，市场出口额15171.13万美元，同比分别增长-7.64%和41.11%。

从出口品类看，联合收割机出口量和出口额依然占据主要份额，且呈现大幅度攀升。统计显示，联合收割机的出口量和出口额分别达到了10503台和14020.84万美元，同比增长30.02%和58.07%；占比分别为58.24%和92.42%，较之去年同期大幅度上扬16.87和9.91个百分点。

从其它收获机的出口表现看，出口量均呈现不同程度的下滑，其中甘蔗收获机和其它未列明收获机出口量同比呈现大幅度下滑。棉花采摘机出口额同比下滑60.69%，甘蔗收获机和其它未列明收获机出口额同比分别大幅度攀升195.99%和33.41%。

出口区域聚焦亚洲，集中度下降

联合收割机出口区域主要集中在亚洲，统计显示，亚洲出口量和出口额分别为9868台和12537.25万美元，占比为93.95%和89.42%。

从出口额前10的国家或地区看，出口区域集中度有所下降。统计显示，截至今年6月底，联合收割机共出口61个国家或地区（与去年同期出口国家或地区的个数相同），出口前10名的国家累计出口量和实现出口额分别为9861台和12850.05万美元，同比增长28.25%和53.26%；占比分别为93.89%和91.65%，较之去年同期分别下降1.22%和2.87%。

从今年上半年出口前10名的区域看，累计实现出口额12427.38万美元，同比增长81.26%，占比88.64%，较之去年同期上扬11.34个百分点。其中印度尼西亚、伊朗和菲律宾作为出口前3名的区域同比分别大幅度攀升119.26%、409.64%和180.89%，占比7成以上，且均呈现较大幅度提高。越南、斯里兰卡、缅甸和秘鲁均呈现不同的程度的下滑。

收获机出口市场为何增长？

第一，当前亚洲经济出现持续改善迹象，外部需求回暖。尤其是新兴市场中俄罗斯、印度经济走势也以扩张为主。全球主要经济体延续复苏态势，国际市场需求有所改善，有利于我国收获机出口增长。

第二，我国收割机出口仍存在许多有利条件，收割机产品质量稳中求进，脱虚向实，供给侧结构性改革继续深化，性价比高，国际竞争力逐渐增强，在不发生大的风险情况下，2017年全年我国收割机进出口有望延续回稳向好的势头。

第二，收获机出口全面回升，对部分“一带一路”沿线国家进出口增长。上半年，我国对印度尼西亚、伊朗等出口额大幅度攀升。

第四，出口大型化是“量降额增”的根本原因。从出口单价分析，一季度，收获机出口单台均价增长6200美元，其中联合收割机单台均价上扬2700美元，甘蔗收割机上涨了20.1万美元。这种变化推进了收割机出口额的大幅度攀升。

第五，进口大幅度滑坡并不意外，随着我国收割机市场的逐渐成熟以及国际大品牌落户中国，绝大多数收获机基本能满足国内市场需求，进口下滑将成为收割机进口的常态。

但必须看到，我国收割机出口面临的复杂和不确定因素依然较多。一是全球经济复苏乏力，市场需求尚未得到根本改善。二是当前全球经济尚未根本好转，未来大宗商品价格走势存在较大不确定性。三是2016年出口规模逐季扩大，基数明显抬高。这些因素都可能成为下半年我国收割机出口面临的困难。

国内市场下滑分析

上半年，收获机械市场下滑是多重因素综合作用的结果，突出表现在以下几个方面。

第一，我国收获机市场正处于转型的“空窗期”。统计显示，2016年小麦、水稻、玉米3大粮食作物的机收水平2016年分别达到了93.74%、87.11%和66.68%，而经济类作物的机收水平很低，其市场尚处于初期的启动阶段，难以支撑整个收获机市场。不难发现，我国收获机械市场正处于传统市场降温，新兴市场尚未进入成长期的“空窗期”。

第二，农机补贴滞后。由于各种原因，上半年农机补贴进展缓慢。据相关消息，截至6月底，我国农机补贴的进度仅仅为22%。

第三，缺乏主流市场的强大支撑。上半年，3大作物收割机因各自的因素，出现不同程度的下滑。正是三大主流联合收割机市场的同声下跌，才导致整个市场的大幅度滑坡。

第四，粮食价格低迷，购买力下降。自去年开始至今的粮价处于低位，严重削弱了消费者的购买力，直接导致收获机更新周期延长。

第五，市场透支。去年，出于竞争需要，一些厂家大力促销。小品牌祭起价格大旗，以低价冲击市场，大品牌跟随，降价促销。由此引发了一些消费者提前购买，市场透支较为严重。

上半年收获机械市场回放与下半年预判分析（英） ♂

上半年收获机械市场回放与下半年预判分析（英）

Market Review of Harvester in the First Half and Forecast and Analysis inthe Second Half

In the first half, China’s combine harvester market suffered a sharp decline that was not seen over the years. The three major crop combine harvester market slumped all the way, of which crawler grain combine harvester market reflected a slight decline, while wheeled grain combine harvester and corn harvester suffered a significant decline of more than 30%.On the contrary, the amount of exports of the harvester machinery made an unexpected achievement, serving as a selling point of the harvester market in the first half.

Three major grain harvesters market slide

Market survey shows that as of the end of June, the cumulative sale of a variety of combine harvesters reached 74,500units, with year-on-year decline of 19.86%; and the monthly performance of the harvester machinery market tends to suffer from ups and downson the whole.The monthly year-on-year growth in the first half remained in the glide path and the decline is two-digit. In addition, the month-on monthgrowth is filled with ups and downs, like a “roller coaster”.

Monthly Sales Tendency Chart of Combine Harvester Market from June 2016 to June 2017

With regard to the three major food crop harvesters, the market share of wheeled grain combine harvesters and corn harvesters drops off sharply on year-on-year basis, with a decline of more than 30% on average, while that of crawler grain combine harvesters also fails to escape from decline, but the decline is more moderate, which is 3.66% on year-on-year basis. As for other combine harvesters, they witness a rapid growth of 12.61%.

Seeing from the perspective of market share, the market share of wheeled grain combine harvesters is decreased by 7.87 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year, while that of crawler grain combine harvesters is increased by 9.16 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year, and that of corn harvesters continue to decline for 2.14 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

Market Demand Structure of Combine Harvesters in the First half of 2017

Regional concentration reflectesa slight rise, and the mainstream regions move southward

In the first half, the regional market of harvesters showed two more prominent features. One is the slight rise in the concentration of mainstream regions. Market survey shows that the first six months, the cumulative sales of a variety of harvesters of the top 10 regions in terms of sales reached 64,700units, with year-on-year decrease of 17.74%, those market share accounted for 86.85% of the total, with year-on-year growth of 2.18 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year.The other one is the southward movement of mainstream region. Among the top 10 regions in terms of sales, the regions with the sales above 10,000units are concentrated in Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei and other southern regions, of which Anhui continues to lead the way, but it also shows a sharp decline of 16.41%, while Jiangsu, Hubei and Hunan gains a substantial increase of more than 30%. The market share is also increased by 7 percentage points, 5.33 percentage points and 1.64 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year, respectively.

The main reason for southward movement of the regional market of harvesters lies in the moderate decline in the crawler grain combine harvester market in the first half, as well as the relatively larger market share. On the contrary, the sharp decrease in the wheeled grain combine harvesters and corn harvesters which are based on the northern demand results in a decline in the regional market of harvesters in the north, and the market share also reflects a greater decline.

Regional Market Share of Harvesters in the First Half of 2017

Import suffers a sharp decline, exports increase while the total decrease

Different from the substantial decline in the domestic market, the import and export market suffers from ups and downs. On the one hand, import falls sharply.Statistics show that as of the end of June, the cumulative imports of various harvesters reached 437units, achieving the amount of imports of 38.9294 million US dollars, with year-on-year decrease of 55.72% and 47.43%, respectively. On the other hand, the export decreases in volume while increasing in amount.

Export structure tends to be large-scale with the decrease in volume and increase in amount

In the first half of the year, China’s harvester machinery exports fell slightly, while exports rose sharply.Statistics show that as of the end of June, the cumulative export of a variety of harvesters reached 18,033units, and the market exports reached 151.7113 million US dollars, with year-on-year growth of -7.64% and 41.11%, respectively.

From the export category, volume and amount of combine harvester exports still occupy a major shareand show a substantial increase.Statistics show that the volume and amount of combine harvester exports reached 10,503unitsand 140.2084 million US dollars, with year-on-year growthof 30.02% and 58.07%, respectively; accounting for 58.24% and 92.42% of the total, respectively, with a significant year-on-year growth of 16.87 percentage points and 9.91 percentage pointscompared with the same period last year.

From the perspective of exports of other harvesters, the export volume shows a decline to different extents, including cane harvesters and other unspecified harvester show a sharp year-on-year decline in terms of export. With regarding to the amount of exports, cotton picker show year-on-year decline of 60.69%, while cane harvesters and other unspecified harvesters reflect a sharp year-on-year growth of 195.99% and 33.41%, respectively.

Exporting regions target at Asia, making the concentration declined

Combine harvester exports are mainly concentrated in Asia, and statistics show that Asia’svolume and amount of exports were 9,868 units and 125.3725 million US dollars, accounting for 93.95% and 89.42%, respectively.

From the top 10 countries or regions in terms of amount of exports, exporting regions show a decline inconcentration. Statistics show that as of the end of June this year, the combine harvesters are exported from 61 countries or regions in total (same number of exporting countries or regions over the same period last year), and the top 10 countries achieved the cumulative export volume and export amount of 9,861units and 128.5005 US dollars, with year-on-year growth of 28.25% and 53.26%, respectively; accounting for 93.89% and 91.65%, respectively, which is decreased by 1.22% and 2.87% compared with the same period last year.

Among the top 10 regions in terms of exports in the first half this year, they achieved a cumulative export amount of 124.2738 million US dollars with year-on-year growth of 81.26%, and the market share accounted for 88.64%, with year-on-year growth of 11.34% compared with the same period last year. As the top 3 regions in terms of exports, Indonesia, Iran and the Philippines show a substantial increase of 119.26%, 409.64% and 180.89%, respectively, which are above 70%, showing a substantial increase. However, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Burma and Peru showa decline to different extents.

Why is increasing in the harvester export market?

First, signs have been found of continuous improvement in the Asian economy at present and external demand has recovered, especially the economic tendency in emerging markets such as Russia and India is also expansion-based.In addition, the world’s major economies continue to recover, and the international market demand has been improved, which is conducive to the growth of China’s harvester export.

Second, there are still many favorable conditions for the export of China’s harvesters. For example, the product quality of the harvesters seeks improvement in stability and makes a transition from emptiness to solidity, the supply side structural reform continues to deepen, the cost performance is high and the international competitiveness has improved day by day. As a result, the imports and exports of China’s harvesters in 2017 are expected to sustain the momentum of returning to stable and making a turnaround.

Third, harvesterexport rebounds on the whole, driving the imports and exports of some countries along ‘the Belt and Road”’. In the first half, China saw a substantial increase in the amount of exports to Indonesia, Iran and other countries.

Fourth, export maximization is the root cause of ‘decrease in volume and increase in amount’.From the unit export price, the average price for each harvester is increased by 6,200 US dollars in the first quarter, of which that of the combine harvesters is increased by 2,700 US dollars, and cane harvesters is increased by 201,000 US dollars. As a result, such change has promoted the substantial increase in the amount of export of harvesters.

Fifth, we’re not surprised at the substantial decline in imports. With the gradual maturation of the harvester market and the introduction of large international brandsto China, most of the harvesters can basically satisfy the domestic market demand, as a result of which the import decline will become the normal of the harvesters.

However, it shall be noted that China’s harvester export is still confronted with many complex and uncertain factors. First, the global economic recovery is weak and market demand has not been fundamentally improved.Second, the current global economy has not fundamentally recovered, and there are still more uncertainties in the future bulk commodity price trend.Third, the base has been significantly elevated as the export scale expands quarter by quarter.All in all, these factors are likely to become the obstacles in the road of export of China’s harvesters in the second half this year.

Analysis of the decline in domestic market

In the first half, the decline in the harvesting machinery market is the result of multiple factors, which is manifested mainly in the following aspects.

First, China’s harvester market is in the “window period” of transition. Statistics show that the mechanical harvesting rate of three major grain crops (wheat, rice and corn) in 2016 reached 93.74%, 87.11% and 66.68%, respectively, while that of economic crops remained at a low level, because the market is still in the initial stage of start-up, making it difficult to support the whole harvester market.But it is not difficult to find that China’s harvesting machinery market is in the “window period”, during which the traditional market is declining while emerging market has not entered the growth period.

Second, subsidies for agricultural machinery are lagged. Owing to variety of reasons, subsidies for agricultural machinery make slow progress in the first half. According to relevant information, only22% of subsidies for agricultural machinery have been granted in China as of the end of June.

Third, it lacks the powerful support of mainstream markets. In the first half, the three major crop harvesters suffered a decline to different extents due to respective factors. And it is the simultaneous decline in the market of the three major combine harvesters that led to a sharp decline in the entire market.

Fourth, food prices are low and the purchasing power is falling. Since last year, food prices have been low, which severely weakens the consumer purchasing power, directly leading to a longer renewal cycle of the harvesters.

Last but not least, the market is overdrafted. In the past year, some manufacturers vigorously promoted for competition.Small brands abandoned the price principle to raid the market at a low price, and big brands followed closely to promote at a reduced price, triggering some customers to purchase in advance, as a result of which the market is severely overdrafted.

上半年新疆农村富余劳动力转移就业139.7万人次 ♂

上半年新疆农村富余劳动力转移就业139.7万人次

? ? 记者从自治区人力资源和社会保障厅获悉：2018年上半年，新疆维吾尔自治区实现农村富余劳动力转移就业139．7万人次，完成全年目标任务的52％。

　　就地就近就业、疆内跨地区转移及整建制有组织转移到内地省市就业是新疆维吾尔自治区农村富余劳动力转移就业的主要渠道。上半年，新疆维吾尔自治区实现就地就近转移就业121．9万人次，疆内跨地区转移就业13．8万人次。整建制有组织到内地就业16778人，完成目标任务的73％。

　　2018年上半年，按照喀什、和田地区城乡富余劳动力有组织转移就业三年规划，在抓好22个深度贫困县就业扶贫工作的同时，全力实施喀什、和田地区城乡富余劳动力转移就业。通过加大岗位开发力度、加强服务管理、给予经费保障等措施，使喀什、和田地区的城乡富余劳动力实现跨地区转移就业。截至6月底，共转移两地城乡富余劳动力39127人，完成年度任务的111．79％。

　　据自治区人社厅农民工工作处相关负责人介绍，2018年，新疆维吾尔自治区进一步提高劳务输出的组织化程度，各地积极拓宽就地就近就业渠道，组织化输出程度明显提升，就业稳定性不断提高。以喀什为代表的“卫星工厂”就业在南疆四地州进展较快，近470家“卫星工厂”在吸纳贫困劳动力就业方面发挥了积极作用；昌吉回族自治州发展劳务组织就业，评定星级劳务组织23家，通过设立劳务产业联合会，200多家劳务组织带动就业8000多人；巴音郭楞蒙古自治州通过政策资金支持合作社、家庭农场等各类农村经济实体，带动就地就近就业；阿克苏地区、哈密市、吐鲁番市加强与工业、产业园区对接，建立岗位招聘信息共享机制，企业就业人数增长较快。