农机大全网（nongjidaquan.com）最新农机信息：2017年上半年拖拉机市场分析（英）(2017年上半年拖拉机市场解读)，农机新产品,二手农机,农机补贴目录,农机价格查询,农机报价大全，更多农机资讯请查看：农机资讯

　　农机大全网（nongjidaquan.com）今天给各位分享2017年上半年拖拉机市场分析（英）的知识，其中也会对2017年上半年拖拉机市场解读进行解释，如果能碰巧解决你现在面临的问题，别忘了关注本站，现在开始吧！

本文导读目录：

1、2017年上半年拖拉机市场分析（英）

2、2017年上半年拖拉机市场解读

2017年上半年拖拉机市场分析（英） ♂

2017年上半年拖拉机市场分析（英）

An Interpretation of the Tractor Market in the First Half of 2017

To our amazement, changes and abnormalities are found in the tractor market in the first half of 2017, during which the domestic market experienced a downturn, while efficiency indicators rose steadily, leading brands had a slump in sales while marginal brands rose sharply, and domestic market saw a moderate downturn while export market made an unexpected achievement…

The insiders get confused about the complex situation. What exactly happed in the tractor market in the first half? We are now trying to recover the tractor market in the first half.

With a slight drop in sales, the market is sluggish

Statistics show that 176 tractor manufacturers above designated sizehave accumulativelyachieved the main business income and the profit of 34.495 billion yuan and 1.213 billion yuan separately in the first half of 2017, with year-on-year growth of 8.66% and 2.74%, respectively.

The main business income increased, but the tractor sales have shown a decline, resulting in the overall market downturn.Market survey shows that China’s total sale of various types of tractors reached 799800, with year-on-year decrease of 8.21%. Among which, the sales of large tractors, medium tractors and small tractors reached 36900, 228000 and 534900, respectively, with year-on-year decrease of 12.35%, 6.75% and 8.52%.

Seeing from China’s large and medium-sized tractor market, the large and medium-sized tractor market continued to decline slightly in the first half.From April 2016 to April 2017, the month-on-month growth of the large and medium-sized tractor market lingered inglide path for 13 consecutive months, which is rarely seen over the years.

Monthly Sales Trend of Large and Medium-sized Tractor Market from January 2016 to June 2017

Structural adjustment, medium tractor rises in market share

In the first half, the demand structure of power section has been adjusted greatly in the large and medium-sized tractor market, showing an outstanding feature that the middle power section is ‘prominent’and shows a good growth trend.

The market demand fortractors within the medium horsepower section is concentrated in 36.8~58.8 kW (50~80 hp).Market surveyshows that the section of 18.4~36.8kW (25~50hp) and the section of 58.8~73.5kW (80~100hp) see a decline to different extents on year-on-year basis, while the section of 36.8~58.8kW (50~80hp) shows a greater increase, making it a model type of medium tractors.

It is obvious that the power section of large horsepower tractors expands upward. The section of 80.9~102.9kW (110~140hp) sees a significant decline to different extents, while that of 102.9~132.3kW (140~180hp) shows a significant increase to different extents, especially the tractors within the section of 110.3~117.6kW (150~160hp) achieve a three-digit year-on-year growth.However, the upward extending of large tractors stops at the section of 132.3kW (180hp), and the models above sections of 132.3~147.0kW (180~200hp) and 147kW (200hp) show a decline to different extents on year-on-year basis.

Seeing from the perspective of market share, large tractors within sections of 73.5~80.9kW (100~110hp) and 95.6~102.9kW (130~140hp) become the leading models, accounting for 43.72%, with a decrease of 5.06percentage pointscompared with the same period of 2016; while the market share of the section of 102.9~117.6kW (140~160hp) shows a rapid growth, with an increase of 7.02 and 7.35 percentage points, respectively.

Regional concentration is improved, marginal market quietly rises up

In the first half of 2017, the regional market performance was characterized by an increase in regional concentration.Market survey shows that there are 11 regions with sales of more than 10000 units and the cumulative sales of 173200 units, accounting for 65.38% of the total, with an increase of 2.12percentage pointscompared with the same period of 2016.

From the perspective of case analysis in mainstream regions, the 11 mainstream regions show a trend of ‘7 up and 4 down’, of which Shangdong, Gansu, Hubei and Jiangxi show a two-digit increase on year-on-year basis, and the regional share also shows a uptrend to different extents; while traditional regions with strong demand show a sharp fall, such as Inner Mongolia, Hebei and Henan, etc.It thus can be seen that the increment of market demand for large and medium-sized tractors has reduced year by year with the saturation of the traditional regions with strong demand and restructuring, while that of some marginal regions remains strong year by year due to the rigid demand.

Regional Sales of Large and Medium-sized Tractors in 2017

Competition pattern Changes, marginal enterprises subdivide the market rapidly

In the first half of 2017, the competition concentration of large and medium-sized tractor market decreased obviously.Market survey shows that the top 5 brands achieved the cumulative sales of 100900 units, with a sharp year-on-year decline of 27.58%; and the market share is 38.08%, with a decrease of 10.5percentage pointscompared with the same period of 2016.Among the top 5 brands, known as ‘three-in-hand’”,YTO, LOVOL and DFAM saw a decline of more than 30%. On the contrary, John Deere showed a sharp rise in year-on-year growth of up to 25.88%, whose market share was increased by 1.07percentage points.

It is not hard to see that powerful brand ‘slumped’in sales, which may probably mean that the stable competition pattern for large and medium-sized tractors which has been maintained for years is facing great challenges.

The double pressures have become an important cause for such change.On the one hand, the competitiveness of foreign brands is gradually brought into play, and they are overcoming the market sales downturn caused due to years of high price, so as to further demonstrate their brand quality advantage through localization to eliminate price disadvantage.On the other hand, the encroachment of non-mainstream brands becomes another major factor in triggering the mainstream brand crisis, because they raid the market at a lower price, and such impact would be powerful in the situation of higher price sensitivity at present.

Meanwhile, it is found in the survey in Weifang that these non-mainstream brands are sharply subdividing the market of mainstream brands, during which some small enterprises gained growth against the trend and an enterprise even gained a year-on-year growth of up to 40% in the first half.At the same time, we also find that some low-end enterprises in Kiamuszeachieved good sales performance at a very low price in the absence of subsidies.All in all, the competition of the large and medium-sized tractor market is sharply subdivided in the context of market transformation and upgrading and demand downturn, showing a new competition pattern.

Market Share Tendency of Mainstream Brands in the Large and Medium-sized Tractor Market in the First Half of 2017

Exportsriseall the way

Tractor exports rise all the way, but the export structure is to be further adjusted.

First, exports grow slightly. Statistics show that the cumulative exports of various tractors reached 75979 in the first half, with year-on-year growth of 10.38%.Among them, the exports of wheeled tractors, walking tractor, crawler tractors or motor tractors reached 25146, 50764 and 69with year-on-year growth of 19.27%, 6.35% and 305.83%, respectively. 

Second, the amount of exports rises sharply. The cumulative amount of exports reached 243.141 million US dollars, with a significant year-on-year growth of 33.34%.Among them, the amount of exports of wheeled tractors, walking tractor, crawler tractors or motor tractors reached 200.0368 million US dollars, 42.589 million US dollars and 526300 US dollars, with year-on-year growth of 40.98%, 5.78% and 159.64% respectively.

From the perspective of export destination countries, the regional export concentration increases significantly.Statistics show that the the wheeled tractors are exported mainly to top 15 countries such as the US and Myanmar in the first half, accounting for 72.4%, which is increased by 5.66percentage pointscompared with the same period of 2016.Among the top 15 countries, 12 countries show a year-on-year growth to different extents in terms of exports, and the top 3 countries in exports, namely, the US, Myanmar and Ukraine, see the year-on-year growth of 84.77%, 60.05% and 23.9%, respectively.In addition, Russia reaches a year-on-year growth in exports up to 102.12%, while that of Algeria andUzbekistan rises up to 73.6 times and 11.3 times.

There are some certain reasons for decline or growth

With the rapid advancement of land transfer as well as the rapid rise of agricultural machinery and agricultural cooperatives, major clients of agricultural machinery, family farms, specialized planting households and other rural organizations in recent years, it should be the prime time for rapid development of the large and medium-sized tractor market, especially the large tractor market, but why it declined in the first half of 2017?

First, the market issaturated andthe rigid demand is in severe shortage. China’s tractor market has achieved farming mechanization many years ago after 10 years of rapid development, as a result of which the rigid demand is weakened. Second, agricultural subsidies are tardy. Although the central finance has allocated subsidies to various regions as early as the beginning of the year, it is slowly implemented in many regions. Third, the switch between ‘state II’and “‘state III”’. The switch between ‘state II’and ‘state III’has been completed in December 1, 2016, but it still has a profound impact on the market in the first half of 2017. In 2016, many dealers turned stock tractors with ‘state II’engine into second-hand agricultural machinery through a variety of ways, making an overdraft of the tractor market in the first half of 2017. Fourth, agricultural machinery sees a decline in income.In recent years, tractor investment income shrinks with the increasing rise in tractor population year by year, which suppresses the potential customers’ confidence to buy, producing a greater impact of the market.

Why the tractor benefit indicators show a moderate growth in the context of market decline?

The main reasons are as follows. First is the rise of emerging marginal enterprises. It is found in market survey that the sales performance of some small enterprises keeps increasing in the first half. Second isthe huge difference in brand performance. Other brands increase while some mainstream brands decrease, such as John Deere, Shifeng and other big brands. Third isthe change in sales structure. The increase in market share of large tractors in the tractor structure increases the whole tractor benefit. Fourth, enterprises increase market risk control while reducing the operating costs of enterprises, increasing the benefit contribution to the entire industry.

2017年上半年拖拉机市场解读 ♂

2017年上半年拖拉机市场解读

2017年上半年拖拉机市场的变局和怪象着实令人诧异：国内市场出现滑坡，效益指标却稳中有升；主流品牌销售“跳水”，边缘品牌却大幅度攀升；国内市场温和下行，出口市场却逆势飘红……林林总总，让业内人士一头雾水。后市环境复杂多变，下半年市场走势更加扑朔迷离。上半年的拖拉机市场到底怎么了？下半年又将演绎出何种走势？我们试图复盘上半年拖拉机市场，揭开下半年走势之谜底。

稳健运行，增幅趋缓

2017年上半年，从拖拉机行业运行的基本面看，呈现稳健运行、增幅趋缓的特点。统计显示，176家规模以上拖拉机生产企业累计实现主营业务收入、利润344.95亿元、12.13亿元，同比分别增长8.66%和2.74%。其中，主营业务收入增幅在农机行业13个子行业中，排名第12位，仅仅高于农用及园林用金属工具制造，低于平均增幅1.09个百分点；利润也低于行业平均利润2.66个百分点。市场需求低迷，导致亏损企业增加，在176家拖拉机企业中，有35家亏损，较之2016年同期多5家，亏损面达到19.89%，较之2016年同期增加2.84%。亏损额1.99亿元，较之2016年同期降低2.23亿元。市场竞争较为激烈，为了促销需要，一些企业铺货、赊销行为直接拉起应收账款的大幅攀升，同比增幅达到了14.93%，市场风险加大。

全线飘红，大幅度攀升

拖拉机出口全线飘红，出口结构进一步调整。国内市场下滑，出口市场大幅度增长成为上半年拖拉机市场最为突出的特点。

首先，出口量小幅增长。统计显示，上半年累计出口各种拖拉机75979台，同比增长10.38%。其中，轮式拖拉机、手扶拖拉机、履带式拖拉机或牵引车出口25146台、50764台和69台，同比分别增长19.27%、6.35%和305.83%。占比33.1%、66.81%和0.09%，较之去年同期分别增长2.47%、-2.53和0.07%。

其次，出口额大幅度攀升。累计实现出口额24314.21万美元，同比大幅度攀升33.34%。其中，轮式、手扶、履带式拖拉机或牵引车出口额实现出口额20002.68万美元、4258.9万美元和52.63万美元，同比分别增长40.98%、5.78%和159.64%；占比分别为82.27%、17.52%和0.22%，较之2016年同期分别增长4.46%、-4.56%和0.11%。

第三，出口额与出口量的同比增幅形成较大反差，主要是拖拉机出口结构发生较大变化所致，轮式拖拉机的大幅度增长以及大型化，直接拉高拖拉机出口额的巨大增长。出口18kW＜功率≤75kW的拖拉机占比高达74.53%，75kW＜功率≤130kW的拖拉机出口额也达到了15.55%，均呈现较大幅度增长，成为拉动出口额大幅度攀升的主要动力。

表1  2017年1—6月拖拉机出口量统计

从出口目的地国分析，出口区域集中度大幅度增长。统计显示，上半年轮式拖拉机主要出口到美国、缅甸等前15个国家，累计实现出口额14481.19万美元，较之2016年同期大幅度攀升53.37%；出口占比72.4%，较之2016年同期上扬5.66个百分点。在前15个国家中，有12个国家出口同比呈现不同程度的增长，其中，出口排名前三的美国、缅甸、乌克兰同比分别增长84.77%、60.05%和23.9%，占比分别为20.32%、11.99%和8.5%，较之2016年同期分别上扬4.77、1.4和-1.2个百分点。俄罗斯出口同比增幅高达102.12%，阿尔及利亚、乌兹别克斯坦出口同比分别高达73.6倍和11.3倍。

小幅下滑，跌宕起伏

与拖拉机稳健运行和出口市场全线飘红迥异的是国内市场的温和下行。上半年，拖拉机市场延续了2016年小幅下滑的特点。市场调查显示，我国累计销售各种型号拖拉机79.98万台，同比下降8.21%。其中，大拖、中拖、小拖分别销售3.69万台、22.8万台和53.49万台，同比分别下降12.35%、6.75%和8.52%；占比4.61%、28.51%和66.88%，较之2016年同期分别增长-0.22%、0.45%和-0.23%。

从我国大中拖市场层面分析，上半年，大中拖市场小幅下滑。前6个月，累计销售各种大中拖24.96万台，同比下降8.03%。

自2016年4月—2017年4月，大中拖市场月度同比连续13个月徘徊在下滑通道中，这是多年未遇的奇观。2017年5月虽小幅攀升，但这种增长也是昙花一现，6月再度跌入下滑通道。从月度环比分析，跌宕起伏。进入2017年以来，2月、3月、5月大幅度增长，1月小幅下滑，4月、6月大幅度滑坡。

中间“凸起”，中拖占据主流

上半年，大中拖市场的功率段需求结构出现较大调整，呈现出较为突出的特点是中间功率段“凸起”呈现较好的增长，中拖和大拖情况极为相似。

从中拖各个功率段需求结构分析，呈现两个突出特征：一是中拖在大中拖中的主流地位难以撼动。市场调查显示，14.7~73.5 kW（20~100 hp）段中拖累计销售22.8万台，同比下降6.75%；占比86.07%，较之2016年同期上扬0.76个百分点。二是功率段向中间集中的倾向十分强烈。18.4~36.8 kW（25~50 hp）段和58.8~73.5 kW（80~100 hp）同比出现不同程度的下滑，36.8~58.8 kW（50~80 hp）段则呈现较大增长，成为中型拖拉机的典型机型。从中拖各个马力段的占比看，29.4~44.1 kW（40~60 hp）段占比高达49.69%，占比中拖的半壁江山。

上半年，我国73.5 kW（100 hp）以上大型拖拉机出人意料的大幅度下滑，市场调查显示，1—6月，累计销售各种大拖3.69万台，同比下降12.18%，占比13.93%，较之2016年同期下挫0.76个百分点。

从73.5 kW（100 hp）以上大拖市场分析，功率段上延的倾向更为强烈。80.9~102.9 kW（110~140 hp）段出现不同程度的大幅度下滑，102.9~132.3 kW（140~180 hp）段呈现不同程度的大幅度攀升，尤其是110.3~117.6 kW（150~160 hp）段拖拉机同比增幅达到三位数。但大拖的上延止于132.3 kW（180 hp）段，132.3~147.0 kW（180~200 hp）段和147 kW（200 hp）以上机型同比呈现不同程度的滑坡。

从占比看，73.5~80.9 kW（100~110 hp）段和95.6~102.9 kW（130~140 hp）大型拖拉机的主力机型，二者占比43.72%，较之2016年同期下挫5.06个百分点；102.9~117.6 kW（140~160 hp）段占比分别增长7.02和7.35个百分点，增速较快。

区域集中度提高，边缘市场悄然崛起

大中拖传统区域市场主要集中在东北、西北和华北的“三北”区域，近年，随着“三北”趋势市场渐趋饱和以及需求结构变化，区域格局正在悄然生变。2017年上半年，区域市场表现的突出特点是区域集中度提高。市场调查显示，销量超过1万台的区域共11个，累计销售17.32万台，同比下降4.68%；占比65.38%，较之2016年同期上扬2.12个百分点。

从主流区域的个案分析，11个主流区域呈现“7上4下”，其中，山东、甘肃、湖北、江西同比呈现两位数增长，区域占比也呈现不同程度的上扬；与之此消彼长的是传统的需求强势区域内蒙古、河北、河南出现较大幅度滑坡。由此不能看出，大中拖区域市场需求随着传统强势区域需求的饱和以及结构性调整，增量正逐年调减。而一些边缘区域因刚性需求的存在，正逐年走强。

下滑有因，增长有由

上半年，国内拖拉机市场下滑是有多重利空因素促成的。随着土地流转的加速推进，规模化、集约化经营成为当今农村的必然发展趋势。加之近年农机和农业合作社、农机大户、家庭农场、种植专业户等农村组织快速崛起，本应是大中拖市场尤其是大拖市场快速发展的最佳时期，但2017年上半却出现了滑坡，究竟为何？

第一，市场饱和，刚性需求严重不足。我国拖拉机市场经过黄金10年的迅猛发展，早于多年前即已实现耕作机械化，近年大中拖市场依然保持了较好的增长，主要来自市场结构性调整所产生的更新需求，尤其是大拖市场崛起的拉动。事实上，这种非刚性需求产生的拉动力非常脆弱，一旦市场偶发因素发生，对市场都会带来沉重的打击。譬如自2016年至今，粮价的大幅度下跌，消费者购买力受到极大削弱，直接产生两个后果：第一，更新周期延长，第二，购买能力不足。

第二，农机补贴迟缓。众所周知，农机补贴对农机市场将产生重大的影响，中央虽然早于年初即将补贴下发至各个区域，但许多区域推进速度缓慢。这点从7月21日农业部发布消息即可了解到“截至6月底，各省已实施中央财政补贴资金41.5亿元，已完成全年任务的22%”。由此不难看出，上半年，我国农机补贴给予市场的支撑力十分有限，对拖拉机市场产生了较大的利空影响。

第三，“国Ⅱ”“国Ⅲ”切换。“国Ⅱ”“国Ⅲ”切换虽然已于2016年12月1日完成，但依然对2017年上半年的市场产生深刻影响。2016年许多经销商通过各种方式将库存“国Ⅱ”发动机的拖拉机变成二手农机，这部分拖拉机销售透支了2017年上半年的拖拉机市场。

第四，农机收益下降。近年随着拖拉机社会保有量的逐年攀升，拖拉机投资收益缩水，压制了潜在消费者的购买信心，对市场产生较大影响。

市场下滑，为何拖拉机效益指标却出现温和增长？

其缘由主要有以下几个方面：一是新兴边缘企业的崛起，市场调查中，我们发现一些小企业上半年销售业绩不降反升；二是品牌表现的巨大差异，在一些主流品牌下跌的同时，另一些品牌却出现增长，譬如迪尔、时风等大品牌；三是销售结构发生变化，大拖在拖拉机结构中占比的提高，拉升了整个拖拉机效益；四是企业加大市场风险控制，同时，压低企业企业运营成本，对整个行业的效益贡献率在提高。

市场竞争格局生变，边缘企业急剧分化

2017年上半年，大中型拖拉机市场竞争集中度明显下降。市场调查显示，前5大品牌累计销售10.09万台，同比大幅度下滑27.58%。占比38.08%，较之2016年同期下挫10.5个百分点。其中，号称“三驾马车”的中拖一拖、福田雷沃和常州东风下滑幅度均在30%以上，占比分别下挫4.63、5.49、2.38个百分点。与之相反，迪尔、山东时风同比出现不同程度的增长，尤其是迪尔，同比增幅高达25.88%，占比上扬了1.07个百分点。

不难看出，强势品牌销量“跳水”，是否意味着延续多年的大中型拖拉机市场竞争格局的稳定性正面临着巨大挑战，而直接导致变局的因素异常复杂，双重挤压成为重要的原因。一方面正外资品牌的竞争力逐渐发挥出来，他们正克服多年因高价导致的市场销量低迷，通过国产化消弭价格劣势，并进一步彰显产品品质优势。另一方面，非主流品牌蚕食成为催化主流品牌危机的又一重要因素，他们携低价优势冲击市场，在当前价格敏感度较高的情势下这种冲击力变得十分强大。同时，我们在潍坊的调研中，发现这些非主流品牌正在急剧分化，一些小品牌在低迷的市场下，关门歇业，在潍坊40多家拖拉机生产企业中，有12家今年就没有生产。相反，一些企业却逆势增长，有一家企业，上半年同比增幅高达40%。这些边缘企业也可能在这场变革中上升为主流品牌。同时，在佳木斯，我们还发现一些不入流的企业，以很低的价格，在没有补贴的情况下，销售火爆。总之，大中拖市场的竞争在市场转型升级、需求低迷的环境下，正在急剧分化，演绎新的竞争格局。

后市不容乐观，市场或将下滑

上半年拖拉机市场的基本走势告诉我们，2017年的拖拉机市场面临更为复杂的环境和不确定性，整个拖拉机虽利好与利空交织，但利空因素表现的更为强烈，由此我们预判，整个拖拉机市场或将呈现小幅下滑。

从利好因素看，第一，大型农机具市场增长将拉动大拖市场；第二，更新需求成为支撑市场的重要力量；第三，去年市场下滑，为今年市场增长提供了必要的条件。

与利好因素形成巨大反差，利空因素表现的更为强烈：其一，市场已经饱和，内生性需求严重不足，市场支撑力并不充分；其二，作为市场主要驱动力的农机补贴因拖拉机单台补贴额度的下调，对市场购买行为将产生较大负面影响；其三，粮价下行，购买力下降，更新周期延长等因素对今年市场所产生的强烈利空影响不容小觑；其四，大型拖拉机在增长与中小拖的持续大幅度滑坡，一方面改变了市场需求结构，另一方面，拉低了整个市场需求量；其五，作业收益的边际递减将打击潜在用户的消费信心，新增用户会进一步减少；其六，传统热点主流区域向非主流区域转移过程中的形成的空窗，对今年乃至今后数年都将产生深刻的影响。

基于以上分析，预计大中型拖拉机市场2017年或将小幅滑坡，销量维持在50余万台，同比下滑5%左右。其中大拖下滑幅度会收窄，中拖下滑幅度或将扩大。

我国小型拖拉机市场已经进入需求平台期，市场表现受周期性需求的影响很大。2017年受整体市场利空环境和大中拖更新的双向挤压，市场或将更为惨淡。我们预计，全年市场销量或将在110万台左右，市场降幅在10%上下。

三连跌后终见红，或将演绎反弹大戏

拖拉机出口面临较好的国际环境，首先，当前全球经济出现持续改善迹象，回暖迹象有所表现；其次，中国倡导推动的“一路一带”战略将推动我国拖拉机对沿线国家的出口；再次，拖拉机的性价比优势及出口结构调整，大型拖拉机成为出口的驱动力；第四，亚洲、非洲市场成为拖拉机出口的新引擎；最后，拖拉机出口已遭遇三连跌，今年上半年终见红，应在预料之中。说明去年的出口已经探底，出口势能高企，加之形成的出口“洼地”。为今年出口增长提供了强大支撑。

综合以上各种因素，我们对今年的拖拉机出口市场作如下预判：第一，2017年出口量或将小幅攀升，出口额或将大幅度攀升；第二，出口大型化趋势不会改变，并呈强化之势。第三，轮式拖拉机依然是优势出口品类，占比依然在80%以上；第四，出口区域较为广泛，美国、俄罗斯、乌克兰依然是出口主要区域。